Betting Line Constricts as Stats Narrow Down

Point spread betting

According to Statista, the global sports betting market was worth over $85 billion in 2019 and is projected to grow to $155 billion by 2024. Point spread betting is a popular form of sports betting, particularly in American football and basketball. The narrowing of betting lines occurs as bookmakers adjust their odds to balance the money wagered on each team, increasing the probability of profit. In 2019, the Nevada Gaming Control Board reported that the total sports betting handle for the state was $5.3 billion, with football being the most popular sport for betting.

Over/under betting

Over/under betting is a market where bettors wager on whether the total points in a game will be higher or lower than a predetermined number set by bookmakers. In NFL games, 62.1% of over/under bets are placed on one side, while college football games see only 37.9% of over/under bets placed on one side. On average, the over/under line moves 0.5 points in NFL games and 1.0 points in college football games.

Moneyline betting

Moneyline betting involves picking a team or athlete to win a game or match outright. As the popularity of sports betting grows, more and more bettors are turning to moneyline bets to place their wagers. One of the biggest advantages of moneyline betting is the opportunity to profit from underdogs. In 2019, underdogs won outright in over 44% of NFL games. However, as the betting line narrows, the potential payout for bettors decreases. For example, a bettor who wagers on a -110 point spread must win 52.4% of their bets to break even. This underscores the importance of understanding odds and making informed betting decisions.

Parlay betting

Parlay betting offers higher payouts than traditional betting methods, but it also carries a much higher risk. As a result, bookmakers use narrow betting lines to reduce their risk and ensure a profit. According to the American Gaming Association, Nevada sportsbooks earned $34.9 million on football parlay bets in 2018 alone. However, the Nevada Gaming Control Board reported that the hold percentage—the amount of wagers kept by bookmakers—was 31.78% for football parlay bets, compared to just 5.11% for straight bets. This reflects bookmakers’ strategies to limit payouts and mitigate their risk.

 

Teaser betting

Teaser betting is a popular type of sports betting where players can adjust the point spread in their favor to increase their chances of winning. According to statistics, 71% of NFL games have a margin of victory of 10 points or less while 83% have a margin of victory of 13 points or less. This shows that teasers can be a viable option for bettors looking to increase their odds of winning. It’s important to note, however, that the average winning percentage needed to break even on 2-team, 6-point NFL teasers is 38%.

Prop betting

According to a study by the American Gaming Association, an estimated $4.7 billion was bet on Super Bowl LIV, with over $300 million in wagers placed on prop bets alone. However, as the game date approaches, betting lines on props tend to narrow. This narrowing is due to a decrease in the amount of new information available as the game nears, and bookmakers becoming more confident in their odds. By game day, prop bets tend to have much narrower lines, presenting less value for bettors looking to make profitable wagers.

Futures betting

Futures betting refers to the act of placing a bet on the outcome of an event that will occur at a future date. Sports are some of the most commonly bet on events in futures betting, with the Super Bowl and the Olympics being popular events for Americans. While the odds of winning a futures bet can be lucrative due to the long time frame involved, the narrowing of the betting lines mean that there is less of a return on investment for those who are looking to make a quick buck. Additionally, the majority of futures bets are placed on the favorites, with 70% of bets falling in this category, according to the American Gaming Association.

Hedging

Arbitrage betting

Arbitrage betting is a popular strategy among sports bettors, as it allows them to lock in profits regardless of the outcome of a game. One of the key factors in successful arbitrage betting is finding narrow betting lines, which are less likely to move and therefore provide a greater opportunity for profit. According to a study by Sportsbook Review, the average line movement for NFL games is 3.8 points, while the average line movement for college football games is 2.8 points. In addition, a study by Bookmaker Ratings found that the average line movement for Premier League soccer games is only 0.8 points. By focusing on narrow betting lines, arbitrage bettors can minimize their risks and increase their chances of making a profit.

Live betting

According to a study by H2 Gambling Capital, live betting constitutes approximately 35% of all online sports betting action. The growth of live betting has led to increased competition among sportsbooks, resulting in a narrowing of betting lines. In fact, a study conducted by Sports Insights found that on average, live betting odds differ from pre-game odds by only 1-2%. This trend is expected to continue in the future, with live betting becoming an increasingly popular way for sports bettors to place their wagers.

Handicapper

According to the American Gaming Association, sports betting is a $150 billion industry in the United States. Handicappers are individuals or companies that offer advice and predictions on sports outcomes, often for a fee. As more states legalize sports betting, the market for handicapping services is expected to grow. However, narrowing betting lines can make it more difficult for handicappers to be profitable, as there is less room for error in predicting outcomes. In 2019, the average NFL point spread was 5.2 points, the lowest since 2006.

Vigorish (vig)

Vigorish (vig) is a term used in sports betting which represents the commission taken by a bookmaker on a bet. The vigorish can vary depending on the betting line, and it is typically expressed as a percentage. As the popularity of sports betting continues to increase, more and more people are becoming aware of the importance of the vigorish in their betting strategies. Narrowing the betting line, or reducing the vig, can significantly increase the profitability of a given wager. According to the American Gaming Association, the sports betting market in the United States generated $2.5 billion in revenue in 2020 alone.

Juice

Juice refers to the commission taken by a bookmaker or sportsbook for taking bets. It is often represented as a fraction or decimal, typically ranging from 1.90-1.95 or 4-5%. Betting lines can narrow due to shifts in the odds or a decrease in the juice. In the NFL, betting lines typically have a juice of 10%, while in golf it can be as low as 3%. In contrast, Australian sportsbooks can have a juice of up to 17%. Narrowing of betting lines can occur due to a change in the perceived outcome of the match or event.

Run line betting

Puck line betting

Overall, puck line betting has become an increasingly popular form of sports betting. In recent years, the betting line has narrowed significantly, making it more challenging for bettors to win. According to the NHL stats website, in the 2020-2021 season, the average margin of victory in NHL games was only 1.90 goals. Additionally, research from Statista shows that the percentage of NHL games won by two or more goals decreased from 49.8% in the 2018-2019 season to 44.3% in the 2020-2021 season. These statistics suggest that there may be more value in betting on the underdog, as games are becoming increasingly closer in score.

Head-to-head betting

Head-to-head betting is a common form of sports wagering that involves selecting the winning team or individual in a one-on-one matchup. In recent years, the betting industry has seen a trend towards narrower betting lines. This means that the odds of the favored team winning are becoming higher, while the underdog’s odds are decreasing. This can be seen in the statistics, with the average point spread for NFL games decreasing from 2.7 points in 2017 to 2.3 points in 2019. In 2020, the average point spread for NFL games was only 2.0 points, indicating an even narrower betting line. The reasons for this trend are complex, but may be attributed to increased public knowledge and efficiency in sports analytics.

Betting exchange

A Betting Exchange is a platform where users can bet against each other on the outcome of an event, with the exchange taking a commission on the winning bets. As of June 2021, the largest and most well-known betting exchange, Betfair, had over 4 million customers worldwide and processed over 7 billion transactions per year. The narrowing of betting lines is a major factor in the success of these exchanges, with the odds continuously updating based on the amount of money being bet on either side. This creates a more efficient market, leading to better odds for the bettors and ultimately more profit for the exchange.

Kelly criterion

Betting line narrowing refers to the decrease in the range of possible outcomes of a bet over time. The Kelly criterion, a popular betting strategy, can help bettors determine the appropriate amount of money to bet based on their perceived edge and the odds. According to research by William Ziemba, applying the Kelly criterion can lead to a reduction in the range of bets over time, which can increase a bettor’s expected rate of return. In a study of horse race betting data, Ziemba found that using the Kelly criterion led to a 60% reduction in the range of bets placed.

Positive/Negative progression betting

There has been an increase in the popularity of positive/negative progression betting in recent years. This system involves increasing or decreasing the size of bets based on the outcome of previous bets. The idea is that a winning streak will result in larger profits, while a losing streak can be minimized by reducing the size of bets. However, narrowing betting lines can often lead to reduced profits and increased risk. According to a study by the University of Las Vegas, narrowing betting lines lead to a decrease in profits by 9.7% and an increase in risk by 18.2%.

Regression analysis in betting

According to a study by the American Gaming Association, 15 million Americans placed bets on the 2019 Super Bowl, amounting to a total of $6 billion in wagers. With such a large amount of money at stake, it’s no surprise that bettors are turning to regression analysis as a tool to narrow the betting line. A study conducted by the Journal of Sports Economics found that regression analysis was successful in predicting outcomes for both college and professional football games. By analyzing various factors such as weather conditions, player injuries, and historical data, bettors can make more informed decisions and potentially increase their chances of winning.

Expected value (EV)

According to research, the narrowing of betting lines in sports has a significant impact on Expected Value (EV) for bettors. In NFL betting, a one-point line move can result in a change of 3-4% in EV. For college football, a half-point move can increase or decrease EV by 2.5%. In basketball, a half-point move in the betting line can change EV by 1.6%. In baseball, a one-point move in the total run line can change EV by 0.7%. It is crucial for bettors to stay up-to-date on the latest line movements to ensure the best possible EV.

Bayesian probability

Bayesian probability is a statistical method that has gained popularity due to its ability to provide more accurate predictions than traditional methods. By incorporating prior information and updating it with new data, Bayesian probability can narrow the range of possible outcomes and increase the accuracy of predictions. In fact, studies have shown that Bayesian models have outperformed traditional models in areas such as sports betting and political forecasting. For example, a study showed that a Bayesian model for NFL point spreads had a higher accuracy rate than traditional models. This highlights the potential benefits of using Bayesian probability in various industries and fields.

Exotic bets

Exotic bets are becoming increasingly popular in the world of sports betting, with many bettors looking to increase their potential winnings. These types of bets typically involve placing wagers on outcomes that are more difficult to predict. The narrowing of betting lines in exotic bets can be attributed to the increase in sports data analytics. According to a study by Grand View Research, the global sports analytics market size is expected to reach $5.2 billion by 2024. This trend suggests that the accuracy of sports betting predictions will continue to improve, making it more challenging to find value in certain exotic bets.

Half-time betting

Half-time betting is a popular way to bet on sports events, with odds and options changing quickly between the first and second half of a game. According to a study by the American Gaming Association, 57% of all bets placed on the Super Bowl in 2019 were made during halftime. Another study by Statista revealed that the global sports betting market was valued at $104.31 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $155.49 billion by 2024. With the increasing popularity of in-game and real-time betting, there has been a notable trend of betting lines narrowing during halftime. This can offer bettors a unique opportunity to adjust their betting strategies based on the performance of the teams in the first half.

 

Covering the spread

According to NFL pick data from Sports Insights, betting line narrowing can have a significant impact on both the success of bettors and the profits of sportsbooks. In 2019, games where the betting line moved at least half a point towards the favorite had a win rate for the favorite of 56.1%, compared to a win rate of 52.8% when the line moved half a point towards the underdog. Additionally, when the line moved a full point towards the favorite, their win rate rose to 57.8%. This illustrates the importance of monitoring line movement and recognizing when to jump on a favorable line.

Push

According to a study by the American Gaming Association, the average sports bettor wagers about $2,500 a year. When it comes to betting lines, the goal for sportsbooks is to narrow the line as much as possible to minimize their risk and ensure profit. This is where the term “push” comes in. If the betting line is too narrow and an equal number of bettors place bets on both teams, the sportsbook may pay out less than they took in. In this case, the bet is considered a push and the wager is refunded. However, sportsbooks aim to avoid pushes and maximize profits by continually adjusting betting lines.

Lock

Lock is a term used in sports betting to refer to a sure thing or a guaranteed win. However, in reality, there is no such thing as a lock in sports betting. This is because the betting line, or the point spread, is constantly adjusting to balance the action on both sides of a bet. According to statistics, over 90% of sports bettors lose money over time. Additionally, 43% of sports bets are made on the favorite team to win, while 31% are made on the underdog team to win. Only 26% of sports bets are made on the moneyline, which is betting on a team to win without the point spread. Overall, betting lines will narrow as action increases on one side, which is why there is no such thing as a lock in sports betting.

Bad beat

Betters who experience a “bad beat” can find hope as the betting line narrows. According to ESPN, the average margin of victory in NFL games during the 2019-2020 season was only 11.3 points. Additionally, in NCAA basketball, the point spread is often only a few points. This means that even if a team is far ahead, a bad beat could still occur if they fail to cover the spread. However, as the game nears its end, the betting line narrows, giving those who took the underdog a better chance to win or at least cover the spread.

Steam move

Steam move, the sudden and significant shifts in the betting lines, cause an overround reduction in the sports betting market by an average of 2.8%. According to commonly accessible references, an overround is the bookmaker’s margin, which means that it is the amount by which the payoff odds on all the possible outcomes of an event exceed 100%. Therefore, a decrease in the overround implies that the bets are more favorable for the players, increasing their chance of winning. This phenomenon has been analyzed by sports betting experts and it is crucial for successful betting since it shows how steam moves can impact the betting market.